Trump Leads Biden in Recent Poll, but a Key Statistic Raises Concern for Both Campaigns

With the 2024 presidential election on the horizon, Donald Trump has emerged as a formidable contender for the Republican nomination, securing support in two states. A recent poll has shed light on how the former president fares against the current President Joe Biden. The findings reveal that 40% of Americans surveyed in a Reuters/Ipsos poll would vote for Trump if the election were held today, while Biden garnered only 34% support. The remaining respondents were divided, with 7% opting for another candidate, 11% choosing not to vote, and 8% unsure of their decision.

Conducted from January 22-24 by Ipsos for Reuters, the poll included a sample of 1,250 adults aged 18 and older, consisting of 478 Democrats, 572 Republicans, and 118 independents. It is worth noting that sentiment towards Trump has improved since early January when both he and Biden received 35% support each.

Among Republicans, Trump enjoys the backing of 81%, compared to 78% who support Biden. However, when considering only registered voters, Trump’s lead over Biden narrows slightly to a five-percentage-point difference, with Trump at 43% and Biden at 38%.

The introduction of independent candidates Robert Kennedy Jr. and Dean Phillips in the poll question further impacted the results. In this scenario, Trump received 36% support, Biden garnered 30%, Kennedy was favored by 8% of respondents, Phillips had the support of 2%, 10% chose not to vote, and 13% were undecided.

Interestingly, a pre-poll survey in New Hampshire revealed that a majority of independent or unidentified voters expressed support for Trump’s opponent, Nikki Haley.

When asked why they favored Biden, the majority of his supporters (59%) stated that their vote was against Trump, while only 38% said they were voting to support Biden’s policies. This aligns with previous surveys that have shown a low job approval rating for Biden.

Among Trump supporters, 59% stated that they voted for him and his policies, while 39% said their vote was against Trump and his policies.

A significant number of respondents expressed a desire for fresh faces on the ballot. A net of 56% indicated that they did not prefer Trump to run again, compared to 35% who wanted him to run. The sentiment was even stronger against Biden, with a net of 70% not favoring a Biden rerun, while a net of 22% were okay with him contesting.

Furthermore, a net of 67% expressed fatigue with seeing the same individuals on the ballot repeatedly and desired new candidates, while a net of 19% were content with familiar faces.

Despite only a four-year age difference between Biden and Trump, a net of 74% believed Biden was too old to work in government, while 48% felt the same about Trump.

In conclusion, while Trump maintains a lead over Biden in the poll, both candidates should be concerned about the statistic indicating a desire for fresh faces on the ballot. Additionally, the age factor raises questions about the suitability of both candidates for future government roles.

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